- Hurricane conditions are expected in Friday̵7;s portions of the Bahamas.
- Isaiah has pushed hurricane warnings in some parts of Florida.
- The first impacts were felt in some parts of Florida as early as Saturday.
- The prediction of this system is still uncertain due to multiple factors.
- By the end of next week, Isaiah may affect a significant dimension of the east coast as far north as New England.
Hurricane Isaiah (e-ah-EE-ahs) is expected to strengthen as it follows the Bahamas on Saturday and will move near Florida this weekend before tracking the east coast to northern New England next week.
A hurricane warning has been issued for part of the east coast of Florida, from Boca Raton to the Volusia / Brevard County line. Hurricane conditions are expected on Saturday afternoon or Sunday.
A hurricane clock has been extended, currently in force for portions of Florida from north of the Volusia-Brevard County line to the Flagler / Volusia County line, and south Florida from Boca Raton to Hallendale County. A hurricane clock is usually emitted 48 hours before the first appearance of the tropical force wind, which makes outdoor preparations difficult or dangerous.
(MONTH: Hurricane season conditions to know)
Hurricane warnings continue in the Bahamas, including Nassau, Freeport and the Abacus Islands, where hurricane conditions are expected on Saturday.
Strong winds and rain bands are dropping the southeastern Bahamas, as well as the Turks and Caicos. Wind gusts of more than 50 km / h have been measured Turks and Caicos on Thursday evening and early Friday afternoon. Conditions are deteriorating in the central and northern Bahamas.
Heavy rains caused very heavy flooding in various areas of Puerto Rico. Just under 4.5 inches of rain was measured on Thursday. According to local emergency control, several fallen, landslide and flood trees were reported. River floods has been registered by USGS calibers in several locations in Puerto Rico.
(NEWS: Deadly Isaiah has left widespread damage throughout the Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico)
Below is what we know about forecasting possible impacts from the United States and the Caribbean.
Concern of the United States in Florida, East East
The NHC route shown below shows that this system could be located near the east coast of Florida this weekend. Isaiah will gradually move northeast, near the east coast. This is a subtle change to the west compared to previous forecasts.
There are a number of reasons for this uncertainty in both track and intensity.
It is still too early to accurately determine the future track and intensity of this system, with respect to the continental United States and therefore the possible impacts, including rain, wind, and storm surges.
Here is what we are actively explaining right now:
The hurricane is expected to combat slightly unfavorable upper-level winds, producing what meteorologists call wind shear, along its runway from the Bahamas and beyond. It is usually a nemesis of tropical cyclones.
However, hot water is plentiful near the Bahamas and on the southeast coast of the United States, a factor that would favor slow intensification.
This sum of these two competing factors should incline toward a slow intensification as shown in the National Hurricane Center forecast.
Further north, ground interaction with Florida could weaken Isaiah on Sunday.
Keep track of considerations
The advancing forecast trail is based heavily on the characteristics of direction to the atmosphere: the height of Bermuda and a higher level immersion in the wind flow over the Mississippi Valley. Isaiah’s strength early next week also plays an important role in his career.
There are also great uncertainties about how quickly Isaiah moves near the east coast. Some computer model predictions are faster, others a little slower. Therefore, the timing of all this may also change.
Isaiah is expected to make a U-turn to the north and northeast this weekend early next week. But exactly when and with what intensity this turn occurs will strongly influence the impacts in Florida and along the east coast. And that depends on the exact orientation and strength of these steering characteristics.
The National Weather Service will launch additional balloons to help figure out these atmospheric steering agents in the coming days. Hurricane hunters are also showing the atmosphere around and north of Isaiah this evening to help improve the forecast.
For now, a forecast is expected, near the east coast of Florida, but it could change to the east or west.
Isaiah is expected to arrive near South Florida on Sunday as early as a hurricane and possibly in central or northeast Florida on Sunday afternoon. That would cause at least some impacts of rain, wind, high surfing and coastal flooding or storm surges in Florida this weekend.
There can also be a strong storm hazard along the east coast of Florida.
Here is the current forecast for the National Hurricane Center:
- Jupiter entrance to Ponte Vedra beach FL: 2-4 feet
- North Miami Beach and Jupiter Inlet FL: 1-3 feet
From there, we could pass near the Carolinas on Monday and then quickly sweep near parts of the maritime northeast to northern New England on Tuesday or Wednesday.
The waves generated by Isaiah could begin to reach the southeast coast of the United States as early as Saturday, causing heavy surfing and the danger of currents. The surf will stay high for the duration until Isaiah passes.
Further north, there is a first glance when strong tropical winds can occur.
East Coast residents from Florida to Maine need to closely monitor the progress of this system and have their plans ready go, just in case.
Caribbean, Bahamas prediction
As mentioned above, Isaiah produces heavy gusts and bands of heavy rain in the northern and central Bahamas.
There is likely to be 4 to 8 inches of rainfall in some parts of the Bahamas with up to 2 inches in parts of Cuba. Life-threatening mudslides and landslides can occur.
Two to four inches of rain is possible from South Florida to East Florida from Friday to Monday, with isolated maximums of 6 inches, according to the National Hurricane Center.
Heavy rainfall may also spread to the East Carolina early next week.
Conditions will gradually improve in the Central and Southern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands on Friday as Isaiah moves north.
From the National Hurricane Center a wave of dangerous storms of up to 3 to 5 feet is forecast, in areas where winds will blow off the coast of the Bahamas.
Surfing and deadly extraction currents will also be expected in Florida this weekend.
Come back to us on Weather.com if you have any important updates on Isaiah.
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