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Is this the End of the OPEC?



Oil prices ran into a brick wall on Thursday, falling more than 1 per cent on the news that US inventories jumped and OPEC could be thinking of departing from its production reductions. their production cuts after June. To date, the current agreement is that OPEC + must maintain the cuts before the end of this year to rebalance the market. OPEC itself. Of course, although the group has kept 1.2 million barrels a day (mb / d) from the market since the beginning of this year (called or take), there are now more sanctions in Venezuela and Iran. In March, Venezuela oil production fell by 289,000 bpd, falling directly to 732,000 bpd, according to secondary sources of OPEC. It is a wonderful figure. The outbreak is widespread, the economic and political crisis, and heavy US sanctions have put pressure on the Venezuela oil sector. Waivers rejected by the United States for eight countries importing Iranian raw will not end in a few weeks. As now, Trump officers seem split on whether they accept or do not take a hard line by allowing the waivers to expire. at the softer end of the spectrum on Iran's policy. Iran has a long history of hardware as Pompeo, so it is saying that its department is seeking to assess the White House policy. It is certain that Pompeo State Department is concerned about the oil markets that will be compatible if the administration is too aggressive on Iran, according to Bloomberg. Related: Executive Order for Oil Fleet

encountered in Trump's Order. Khalid al-Falih, the Arabian oil meal, often recommended the expansion of OPEC + production cuts. The group seems to want to get worse, especially after last year when OPEC + abandoned the declining production and oil market.

This time around, OPEC + will benefit from being able to react after the US seriously. The President decides on the waiver of sanctions in Iran. The surprise of issuing waivers last year is one of the main reasons why prices fell in the fourth quarter. decide to increase the production from the current levels, according to Reuters. The report then follows comments from Russian President Vladimir Putin a few days in advance that Russia seems to be growing wary of keeping supply from the market. Putin said that he does not support an uncontrolled increase in prices. The Russian energy minister, Alexander Novak, said there would be no need to extend the cuts if the market had reached a balance. Related: Goldman: Oil Prices will not come $ 80

Meanwhile, on Wednesday, the EIA reported that there was another surprise in raw inventories. Together ̵

1; Russian doubts, US inventories and the possibility now that OPEC would consider an increase in production – the news added the rise in recent prices. “There is now a suggestion that OPEC should surprise us and increase productivity proactively if we get the highest price,” said Phil Flynn, an analyst at Price Futures Group in Chicago, with Reuters.

However, no decisions have been made and there is nothing inevitable. In a sign that not all members of the OPEC + coalition are on the same page, the story appeared at UAE energy minister, Suhail bin Mohammed al-Mazroui, that Russia was losing the will to cooperate. “Russia will only increase its output in cooperation with the rest of the OPEC and OPEC + countries,” Mazroui said. “I believe in Russia, and I believe that Russia used this agreement… I see no reason why Russia will not continue with us.”

Higher oil prices rise, the more cracks become to promote the collaborative arrangement. What it will take will be another supply disruption in Iran, Venezuela or Libya to kill the market.

With Nick Cunningham from Oilprice.com

Further Studies From Oilprice.com:_19659016]
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